Who’da Thunk It?

With the Sens off the ice for another mini break, I thought I’d take a look at the issues this team faces, and compare them around the league.

Going into the season, Ottawa faced 3 key questions;

1. Goaltending – Is Pascal going to fill the eternal void in net?  Will Elliott continue on his progress toward becoming a legit NHL goaltender?
2. Secondary Scoring – Will the roster over-come the excision of a proven elite scorer from the roster and finally realize some consistent secondary scoring?
3. Offense From Defense – With the loss of Chara, Redden, Meszaros, and Corvo from the blueline, will Ottawa produce sufficient offense from the back-end?

We all know the answers to these questions, TBD, Yes, and Sorta.  This has been discussed at length already, but wasn’t been discussed is how the teams Ottawa looked to as examples of how they wish things would be, have performed this year.

For example, Boston Bruins.  Last season, we all lamented the loss of Chara, and played revisionist GM, dreaming of watching #33 patrol the blueline in a Sens uniform.  We all came into this season pointing to the fact that the Sens blueline remains anemic (on paper) and pointed to Boston as the model franchise in this regard.   Fast forward to this season, Kuba, 0.46 pts/g  vs. Chara, 0.54 pts/g.  Oh sure, Kuba ain’t Chara, but from an offensive perspective, it’s hard to justify the extra 3.8M/yr.  Even worse, last year, between Chara and Wideman, they produced 100 pts.  This year they’re on pace for 68 pts.

And what about the dynamic secondary scoring in Boston?  Where oh where has it gone?

Lastly, goaltending.  Look at the NYR.  Going into the season, King Henrik looked like the sort of goalie that would play a similar role as Brodeur on NJ, or so was the hope.  Lundqvist has been very good, but he hasn’t been good enough, and as it stands, unlike the Senators, the Rangers remain on the outside looking in.

I’m not writing this to defend Ottawa, or slag Boston, or the Rangers, but just to highlight how quickly what seems a sure thing, enviable position, can turn into an issue.  The NHL has proven to be a bit of a roller coaster, and more often than not nobody should use past performance, good or bad, as solid indicators for the future.

All in all Ottawa has been better than expected, and certainly far better than last season, and that, above all else, is the real story.

GN

Price Was Wrong, So Gainey Is Gone.

With rumours swirling around the content of an impending news conference in Montreal, sources say Gainey has chosen to resign in the face of an impending trade of troubled young goaltender Carey Price.

For the last 3 season Gainey has steadfastly maintained his belief that Price will be the newest goaltender hero to grace the sports pages of Montreal, but to date, apart from costing him friends, wins and sleep, Price has proven to be mediocre, at best.

With Halak proving himself as a true number one, capable of securing the all important points the Canadiens will need to avoid a play-off miss, management has pushed to re-align the goaltending ranking, with Halak being placed ahead of Price.  This reality will make Price available for trade, and sources indicate it is this situation that has Gainey falling on his sword.  Gainey has made it clear that if Price goes, he goes too.

Expect a resignation.

Expect a trade.

GN

Utter Embarrassment!

Why did this have to happen vs. the Leafs?

Why oh hockey God have you forsaken us!

Bah, they can have their small victories, I’m not entirely cold hearted!

If it brings the Burke family even a modicum of relief, and helps keep the Sens humble and focused, all is good.

The positive is the loss didn’t cost Ottawa any ground in the play-off hunt, thanks to losses by those above them in the standings, and hopefully this win by the Leafs will inspire them to make a big, useless surge costing our division rival, the Bruins, a solid 1st round pick.

Shake it off boys, I already have.

GN

It’s Just A Game.

For all of the times I’ve said I hated so and so, within the context of hockey, never have I meant it.

The death of Brendan Burke, a kid I admired for his strength of character, made me take pause when thinking about the terms I so flippantly throw around in this game.  These are not characters on TV, they are real people.

My deepest sympathies to the Burke family in the face of this horrible tragedy.

May time soothe all wounds, even those as deep as the loss of a child.  I cannot even begin to fathom your grief.

GN

RUMOUR: Sens Ready To Part With #1 Pick?

WARNING: If you hate rumours, do not read.  If you read, do not complain about how you hate rumours!

There’s talk out there that it may be about to happen.  I pass this rumour along for two reasons;

1. Because it’s fun, it is entertainment after all.
2. Because it has the ring of truth, albeit not fact, NOT FACT!
   

It is a poorly kept secret that CHI has been scouting Sens games of late, and it is a well known fact that CHI has impending cap issues.

Murray, according to recent claims (both by him and the media), is trying to land a top 6 winger.  Now, as discussed in my previous post, there are 2 ways to achieve this goal; trade for a longer term contracted player you want, at a significant cost; Or trade for a rent-a-player, for a lesser cost.

If in fact the rumour of CHI and OTT talking trade has some merit to it, one would have to think the Hawks would want to move a term salary off of the books, and in order to do so, would expect fairly high compensation in return.

Hence, the substance of the rumour rings true.  The rumour being that, with Bolland back on the active roster, CHI is looking to land a roster player and 1st round pick in return for a legit top 6 winger.

The pick part is obvious, the player part, not so much.  One would have to assume this player would provide some depth for a team hoping to make a Cup run.  It’s also reasonable to assume the Hawks would want this player to be un-signed beyond the 09/10 season.

So who on the Sens roster fits this bill?

Ryan Shannon, Peter Regin, Nick Foligno, Jesse Winchester or Shean Donovan.

Of those on that list, only Donovan and Shannon are UFA’s, the remainder are RFA’s and thus represent manageable impending contracts for the performances they provide.

One would have to think the players on that list most desired by CHI would be Regin or Foligno, the ones most available would be Shannon or Donovan.

Would Murray move a 1st and Regin or Foligno for one of Versteeg, Bolland or Sharp?

Would Bowman move Versteeg, Bolland or Sharp for a 1st and one of Shannon or Donovan?

Would you?

Ahhhh, ’tis the season, like it or not!

GN

Deal Or No Deal?

With the Sens humming along on an 11 game win streak, all is good in the world, but those of us who live in the real world, we know the fall is coming.

I’m not saying this winning streak has been a fluke, anything but, however the losses will happen, the bounces will go the wrong way, and individuals will begin to struggle, or their struggles will become more noticeable.

Coming into the season we Sens fans desperately wanted to avoid another play-off miss, to the point that, for myself at least, making the play off was the goal, anything beyond that was pure gravy.  But now that the post season seems almost a sure thing, visions of Lord Stanleys Cup begin dancing in our collective heads.

I for one am doing my best to keep these thoughts, as sweet as they may be, in context.  This roster is not, was not, and should not, be considered legitimate Cup contenders, glorious winning streaks notwithstanding.

Which brings us to the point of this posting.  The trade deadline.

With the recent move of big name players like Phaneuf and Kovalchuk we all begin to picture how they would have looked skating in a Sens uni.  Unfortunately, rarely do we consider the broader context of acquiring these type of players.

The fact is it would require a mix of current roster players, prospects and picks.  These assets are the very assets this team will be relying upon in the future years to be legitimate Cup contenders.  Should Murray really mortgage them now, with this roster, on a Cup run?

Are you willing to lose Volchenkov to UFA in order to gain Phaneuf?  Would you be willing to part with Regin, Kuba, Petersson and a 1st rounder for Kovalchuk?  Would either of those two players instantly make the Sens into legit Cup contender?

I’d say not, and at the end of the day, I believe they’d leave the team worse off in the near future.

So, if the Sens are going to make the post season (which, for the sake of argument I’ll say they will), what, if anything, should Murray do to improve this teams post season prospects?

Should Murray make a big move, trade away players, pick prospects for top half talent, or look to make a tweak here or there by moving a spare part or later round pick?

I’m in favour of the later, not the former, unless it’s a move in line with the teams long term strategic plan.

Thoughts, proposals?

Here’s mine;

Lee to MIN for Brunette

Picard, SJ 2nd to NSH for D. Hamhuis

Just Too Good.

This team isn’t just hot, they’re RED hot!

In a back to back scenario the Sens still managed to out work the rested ‘Nucks and schooled them in every regard.  The scoreboard flattered Vancouver, as did the refs, who allowed the sagging Canucks numerous passes but felt it necessary to rediscover their whistles with 3 minutes remaining in the game.  All for naught in the end as the Sens potted the empty netter to salt away their 11th win in a row.

Another win due to stellar team play, but in this one Elliott looked particularly sharp keeping the Canucks frustrated for most of the night and protecting his defense from having to chase down loose pucks and rebounds.

I would have never predicted such a dominating run by this years Senators, but I’ll gladly take it.  Let’s just hope it doesn’t go to their heads and confidence turns into cockiness.  The fact is, over this outstanding run, the Sens are beginning to allow to many shots against and eventually their luck will run out and some of the fortunate bounces will begin to go the other way.

Let’s also hope the shoulder injury to Karl is no big deal as he has gone from project to asset and an already shallow blueline would be the worse for his absence.

Keep it rolling boys!

GN

RUMOUR – “Ilya IS Moving”

Man, as soon as you pass along a rumour, it burns you…what’ya gonna do?

Spoke to the source of the rumour, and he’s stunned.  Claims they were told by those within the org. that the offers for Ilya were too low to consider a trade, so they would sign instead.

Guess not!

Talk about a steal for Lou…good for him, bad for the East.

GN

RUMOUR: “Ilya NOT Moving…” (UPDATE)

WARNING:  DO NOT READ IF YOU HATE RUMOURS.  If you do choose to read, please do not then complain about having to read about rumours, lol!

^^^^^^^^UPDATE^^^^^^^^

Just communicated with the source of this rumour, and they’re sticking by it, despite the recent PR from Waddell.  Also, interestingly, he said Kubina is possibly on the move, and OTT has expressed interest in aquiring the blueliners services for the remainder of this season (he’s an impending UFA).  As with any rumour, treat as BS until proven otherwise.

FWIW, I’ve just been told, by someone who is within the ATL sphere, that Iya Kovalchuk is not going to be traded, but rather is about to re-sign in ATL to a longer term deal at below league maximum.

It was told to me that, in the absence of “reasonable” negotiations, on the part of the Ilya camp, Waddell publicly announced the start of the Kovy auction.  Kovy, in the end, doesn’t want to leave ATL, and his reps have returned to the table with a more open mind.

I was told to expect an announcement prior to the Thrashers Friday night tilt vs. the Caps.

The fact is ATL want Kovy, Kovy wants ATL.  Now the two have to accept each others needs, and meet somewhere near the middle.

BTW, I was also told Ilya was not expecting the league max, over a long term deal.

Just thought I’d pass this along, as the Ilya sweepstakes seem to be all consuming right now.

GN

A Spezial Night!

How good has Jason been?  REAL good.

Jasons’ 2 goal performance, to set a new team record for consecutive game scoring, was simply icing on the cake for a night that saw so many special moments.

• Extending the Sens dominance over division rival Buffalo to 8 straight wins
• Extending the franchise record to 10 straight wins
• Matching the franchise wins streak for a Senator goalie
• Matching the franchise road winning streak record

But, at the end of the day, what remains the real story is the fact that the Senators are having spectacular results without spectacular individual performances.  There have been some very good individual performances, like Spezza’s last night, but these wins haven’t come as a result of individuals dominating the opposition a la Crosby, OV or Brodeur.  These wins continue to come as a result of spectacular team play.  The offense has been solid, the defense has been solid, the goaltending has been solid.

It used to be the Sens would win in spectacular fashion, with the Pizza line leaving the opposition rocking in a fetal position, but that was then and this is now.  This team wins by playing a solid game, for 60 minutes.

This streak has been great fun, and no doubt us “lifers” will recall it with warm thoughts, but when it comes to an end, and it will, the hope is the simplisity with which it was accomplished will make getting back into the win column an easy re-focus.

This team deserves a huge tip of the hat, from GM down to A.T.

Update on MISSION: 0.614

22/27 pts.   0.6875 P%

The Sens need to secure 5 points, in the next 6 games, to fulfill their mission.

Here’s hoping.

GN