The Waiting Game.


With approximately 2.5M in “workable” cap space remaining, barring a cap clearing trade, the Senators are in a holding pattern awaiting the signing of their RFA’s.

I suspect the pecking order is;

Regin, Campoli, Foligno.

I may be wrong, this is just my view.  But, priority or no, I doubt all 3 will be wearing Sens sweaters come opening night of the 2010/11 campaign.

Regin represents the player with the most upside, no doubt marking him as the priority in re-signing.  As it stands, apart from Regin, Ottawa is entirely bereft of prospective top 6 talent with NHL experience.  Petersson may yet bloom into this role, should he develop a more reliable 2-way game, a short coming which limited his playing time in the Elitserien.  There’s no denying this kids offensive skill, and if he can find his way to becoming a more complete player, Ottawa has likely made another Swedish late draft steal, but this remains another year off, at best.  Hopefully the promotion of team-mate LW’er Nik Tedenby, to the NJ Devils, will provide Andre the opportunity to reach his full potential after another full year skating for HV-71.

Another Swedish hopeful is Jacob Silfverberg, who, after his first, and only, WJC, turned some heads amassing 5 points in 6 GP (3G, 2A).  This “universal” forward will surely play another year for Brynas of the Swedish Elitserien, before getting a chance to suit up in Bingo.  Projected as a top 9 forward, Silfverberg has a chance to skate a regular shift as a top 6 in the NHL, but it remains to far out to project.

The wild card is Louis Caporusso.  A small, shifty waterbug forward, the book remains out on Louis until he suits up for Bingo, and experiences play vs. professionals, over an extended season.  This will prove to be the all important test for the “undersized” Caporusso.  If he can continue to be effective offensively, and show the willingness to engage physically that he routinely displayed at the NCAA level, he is likely to land a top 6 role in the NHL.  If he becomes physically contained by the checking efforts of seasoned pro’s, thus losing his offensive impact, he will be just another victim of size over skill.  Only time will tell.  Capo will likely suit up for his Junior season with U of M., no doubt adding to his already impressive goals total.

By now everyone knows Regin has filed for arbitration, but don’t expect it to reach that point.  Going in front of the arbitrator, at this point in his career, will serve neither sides best interests.  Regin is not going to land a “franchise” contract a la Crosby, but surely is worth more than the league minimum RFA bump.  Expect to see the two sides come together sooner rather than later, with a deal in and around the 2 yr./2.0M – 2.5M range.  Or, if security means everything to Regin, and the Sens believe they him to be a legit top 6’er, a more cap friendly 5 yr./7.5M deal would likely satisfy both parties.

Until then, enjoy the summer, it’s going to be a waiting game.

GN

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9 Responses to “The Waiting Game.”

  1. GN:

    Petr, before arbitration, gets 3 mill for 2 years at least…so his agent can say: “See $3 million dollars!”

    Campy’s Arbitration award is simply to protect him as a Free Agent…I heard that his agent was told to go to Arbitration…meaning we aren’t going to sign you!

    Foligno will sign for a slight raise and Bryan is broke and happy…”We” don’t get the final piece of the puzzle before the Trade Deadline next year but I think we got enough to get there!

  2. GeltainousMutantCoconut Says:

    What about Hoffman? A late-bloomer with very good numbers in his last two seasons in the QMJHL.

    Bobby Butler. The best college free agent available this spring.

    Roman Wick. Another late bloomer, finally coming over to North America.

    And that Culek kid we just drafted…he may be a third-round steal.

    None of these are elite talents…but all have top-6 potential.

    They’re not exactly banging on the door…but there’s enough of them to hope that one or two can join Spezza, Michalek, Fisher and Regin in the top eventually.

    • Absolutely to all of those you mentioned. I would say, of that list, Wick provides the most to hope for in the short term, but the Swiss A league leaves one wondering what this kid can truly contribute in NA, notwithstanding his solid Worlds performance.
      As for Hoffman, I do like the kid, but the Q is notoriously over-rated when used as an offensive comparitor, so his performance in the A will go a long way to showing what he has to offer.
      Butler is also a very intriguing player, much like Capo, only with more size and experience. Can he handle the pace of the NHL and still perform? Few undrafted players have, and Winchester has proven going from NCAA stand-out to top 6 in the NHL is a very big leap. Here’s hoping though!
      GN

      • Lee Zamparo Says:

        From what I recall, Winchester was not a stand-out, just a mature player who could play effectively in all NCAA hockey situations. He was a very good player though, and is certainly an NHL player. I’m excited to see what Hoffman, Butler and Wick can accomplish in Bingo.

  3. Betting the Regin camp is looking north of $1.5M on a short-term deal. If it’s long term, I’d expect the cap hit to exceed $2M. Short-term deal probably makes the most sense for both parties at this point.

  4. I see it as a Alex Burrows comparison. Alex signed for 2M x 4. Although the two play vastly different styles – pest vs skilled 2 way – this would make sense. To me if Regin had posted a 20g 40 point season, a 9M 3 year contract would not be unreasonable. In arbitration, if a 1.7M x 2 is awarded, it could be better for the Sens – they’ll get to see where he’s going for a reasonable price. If he posts the numbers, he would be in for a big raise, but if he stagnates and performs no better than say Foligno (face it – he plateaued) then the team hasn’t mortgaged $$ for a bust.

    We’ve got Michalek, Spezza, Alfredsson, Kovalev and Fisher in a lock for top 6 minutes, with Foligno and Regin competing for the coveted 6th spot (12 minutes vs 16-17). With all the other prospects mentioned vying for time – one could surprise and get in their way.

    I see why they took the arbitration route – Sens are hoping they won’t have to Versteeg or Barker the deal (3yr at >3M per) and will get him for less.

    I’m also glad there’s no offer sheet in play…

  5. MOP:

    You are way wide on the Burrows comparison, but your top 6 minutes reminder is excellent…we may have to start to think in terms of top 9…

    Petr”s Offensive production on the first line, especially when Jason had been struggling previously, just puts a sparkle in the eye of the arbitrator…we shall be lucky to get out of here in just under $3.5 for 2 years!

  6. What about Daugavins? Has he disappeared back to Latvia?

    Also, I am curious to see what Locke can do in our system.

    KJ

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