Some Stats To Highlight The Situation.

For those of you who read this in the comments section, I apologize for the repeat, but considering the time it took to write, I decided to re-post it on the wall.

9th best P% in the league is not “average”.

4th best P% in the East is not “average”.

7th best G/g in the league is not “average”.

4th best G/g in the East is not “average”

1st in PIM/g in the league is not “average”.

29th in PP +/- in the league is not “average”.

29th in PP/g in the league is not “average”.

For those using the “average teams don’t get calls” argument to explain away the obvious bias in officiating, do the math yourself folks.  The spread of the PP for and against bares out the observational evidence that this team is not getting calls for.

If you think you they have the 9th best record in the NHL, 2nd least number of power-plays/g, and most penalties minutes against/g, because they’re “average” and slow, you need to do some reading.
Intuitively just think about this formula;

8th in TSH/g + 29th in PPOpp/g + 1st in PIM’s/g = 9th best record in the league?

How you look at that formula and conclude Ottawa is “average” is beyond comprehension.

And I’m not talking about a minor PP for and against spread here.  Normally, the spread is very tight, the Sens differential is beyond the norm, wayyyy beyond the norm, into the “freak” category.

Statistically, when you have data points made up of 100’s of games, involving 30 an outlandish outlyer, like Ottawas PP +/- ratio is impossible to explain away as “fluke”.  Explaining it requires a clear and conclusive rogue variable.

Here are the numbers;

Team – GP – PP/f  – PP/a – +/- PP/g

	Philadelphia	22		87				98		.5
2	Columbus	23	23	88				106		.78
3	San Jose	26		104				95		.34+
4	Vancouver	23		97				89		.35+
5	Atlanta	21		85				84		.05+
6	Washington	25		96				97		.04
7	Detroit	23		97				82		.63+
8	NY Rangers	24		94				104		.42
9	Anaheim	23		90				107		.74
10	Toronto	23		91				92		.04
11	Chicago	23		82				83		.04
12	Los Angeles	25		103				94		.36+
13	Phoenix	25		94				108		.56
14	Edmonton	25		104				88		.64+
15	New Jersey	22		87				67		.91+
16	Calgary	23		81				91		.44
17	Dallas	24		113				86		1.13+
18	Nashville	23		90				75		.65+
19	Buffalo	21		101	Best For			74		1.28+
20	NY Islanders	25		92				97		.20
21	Colorado	25		98				105		.28
22	Tampa Bay	22		99				93		.27+
	Minnesota	23		99				89		.44+
24	Ottawa	22		72				95		1.09
25	Montreal	25		76	Worst For			108		1.28
26	Boston	24		83				90		.29
27	Pittsburgh	25		104				95		.36+
28	Carolina	24		107				112		..21
29	St. Louis	22		84				94		.46
30	Florida	23		89				89		0.00

So what does this data show?  A very tight distribution curve.

63.3% of teams fall within +/- .5 penalties a game.

86.7% fall within +/- 1 penalties a game.

13.3% of teams have greater than +/- 1 penalties against a game.

That last number is important.  They represent outcomes well outside normal standard deviation distribution.  Basically they are “inexplicable” outcomes, and in a highly competitive league, leave one scratching ones head as to how they are possible.

I’ve watched hockey for years, and not just Sens, all teams, thousands of hours worth, and I do not see the play of the Senators being “rogue” in terms of speed, skill, or legality.  I also do not see opposing teams playing remarkably “cleaner” efforts than is usual.  To think teams consistently play extraordinarily “clean”, vs. one team, is a unteneable supposition.  So if these variables aren’t the cause (and again, I’m not talking marginally worse than other teams, I’m talking PROFOUNDLY worse), what is the “rogue” variable?

The only other options are bad luck, or bad officiating.

20+ games in, that would have to be one hell of a lot of bad luck.
I guess, according to some, the Sens are scoring goals and winning games because of good luck, but are not getting calls because of poor play, right?

But what about the “average teams don’t get calls theory” itself?  Is this even true, assuming (wrongly) Ottawa is “average”?

Try these FACTS.

(P% rank) – Team – PP/Opp – (PP rank) – PP Opp. F/A-Game

(30th)  – CAR  – 107 (2nd) –  -0.21
(29th)  – TOR – 91 (17th) –  -0.044
(28th)  – MIN – 99 (9th) –  +0.43
(27th)  – ANA – 90 (19th) –  -0.74
(26th)  – EDM – 104 (3rd) –  +0.64
(10th) – OTT – 72 (29th) –  -1.09

Notice any odd correlations there?  See anything to support the “average team, fewer calls” theory?
Carolina, arguably the slowest, least skilled (currently) team in the league, has earned the 2nd highest number of penalty calls for.
Seems odd, wouldn’t you say?
Do you think Carolina is playing in such a manner, with their league worst record, to earn 36.4% more PP’s/for a game than Ottawa?

But sure, that theory is definitely more believable than selective officiating.
But I guess facts are irrelevant when compared to impression.

The other team that deserves some recognition for bad officiating is MTL, they actually have the worst PP  +/- in the league, and anyone accusing them of being “slow” needs to have their head examined.

What I can’t find, and wish I knew, is the gross team PP TOI vs PK TOI.  I don’t think it’s mere coincidence this stat isn’t published.

GN