Some Stats To Highlight The Situation.


For those of you who read this in the comments section, I apologize for the repeat, but considering the time it took to write, I decided to re-post it on the wall.

9th best P% in the league is not “average”.

4th best P% in the East is not “average”.

7th best G/g in the league is not “average”.

4th best G/g in the East is not “average”

1st in PIM/g in the league is not “average”.

29th in PP +/- in the league is not “average”.

29th in PP/g in the league is not “average”.

For those using the “average teams don’t get calls” argument to explain away the obvious bias in officiating, do the math yourself folks.  The spread of the PP for and against bares out the observational evidence that this team is not getting calls for.

If you think you they have the 9th best record in the NHL, 2nd least number of power-plays/g, and most penalties minutes against/g, because they’re “average” and slow, you need to do some reading.
Intuitively just think about this formula;

8th in TSH/g + 29th in PPOpp/g + 1st in PIM’s/g = 9th best record in the league?

How you look at that formula and conclude Ottawa is “average” is beyond comprehension.

And I’m not talking about a minor PP for and against spread here.  Normally, the spread is very tight, the Sens differential is beyond the norm, wayyyy beyond the norm, into the “freak” category.

Statistically, when you have data points made up of 100’s of games, involving 30 an outlandish outlyer, like Ottawas PP +/- ratio is impossible to explain away as “fluke”.  Explaining it requires a clear and conclusive rogue variable.

Here are the numbers;

Team – GP – PP/f  – PP/a – +/- PP/g

Philadelphia 22 87 98 .5
2 Columbus 23 23 88 106 .78
3 San Jose 26 104 95 .34+
4 Vancouver 23 97 89 .35+
5 Atlanta 21 85 84 .05+
6 Washington 25 96 97 .04
7 Detroit 23 97 82 .63+
8 NY Rangers 24 94 104 .42
9 Anaheim 23 90 107 .74
10 Toronto 23 91 92 .04
11 Chicago 23 82 83 .04
12 Los Angeles 25 103 94 .36+
13 Phoenix 25 94 108 .56
14 Edmonton 25 104 88 .64+
15 New Jersey 22 87 67 .91+
16 Calgary 23 81 91 .44
17 Dallas 24 113 86 1.13+
18 Nashville 23 90 75 .65+
19 Buffalo 21 101 Best For 74 1.28+
20 NY Islanders 25 92 97 .20
21 Colorado 25 98 105 .28
22 Tampa Bay 22 99 93 .27+
Minnesota 23 99 89 .44+
24 Ottawa 22 72 95 1.09
25 Montreal 25 76 Worst For 108 1.28
26 Boston 24 83 90 .29
27 Pittsburgh 25 104 95 .36+
28 Carolina 24 107 112 ..21
29 St. Louis 22 84 94 .46
30 Florida 23 89 89 0.00

So what does this data show?  A very tight distribution curve.

63.3% of teams fall within +/- .5 penalties a game.

86.7% fall within +/- 1 penalties a game.

13.3% of teams have greater than +/- 1 penalties against a game.

That last number is important.  They represent outcomes well outside normal standard deviation distribution.  Basically they are “inexplicable” outcomes, and in a highly competitive league, leave one scratching ones head as to how they are possible.

I’ve watched hockey for years, and not just Sens, all teams, thousands of hours worth, and I do not see the play of the Senators being “rogue” in terms of speed, skill, or legality.  I also do not see opposing teams playing remarkably “cleaner” efforts than is usual.  To think teams consistently play extraordinarily “clean”, vs. one team, is a unteneable supposition.  So if these variables aren’t the cause (and again, I’m not talking marginally worse than other teams, I’m talking PROFOUNDLY worse), what is the “rogue” variable?

The only other options are bad luck, or bad officiating.

20+ games in, that would have to be one hell of a lot of bad luck.
I guess, according to some, the Sens are scoring goals and winning games because of good luck, but are not getting calls because of poor play, right?

But what about the “average teams don’t get calls theory” itself?  Is this even true, assuming (wrongly) Ottawa is “average”?

Try these FACTS.

(P% rank) – Team – PP/Opp – (PP rank) – PP Opp. F/A-Game

(30th)  – CAR  – 107 (2nd) –  -0.21
(29th)  – TOR – 91 (17th) –  -0.044
(28th)  – MIN – 99 (9th) –  +0.43
(27th)  – ANA – 90 (19th) –  -0.74
(26th)  – EDM – 104 (3rd) –  +0.64
(10th) – OTT – 72 (29th) –  -1.09

Notice any odd correlations there?  See anything to support the “average team, fewer calls” theory?
Carolina, arguably the slowest, least skilled (currently) team in the league, has earned the 2nd highest number of penalty calls for.
Seems odd, wouldn’t you say?
Do you think Carolina is playing in such a manner, with their league worst record, to earn 36.4% more PP’s/for a game than Ottawa?

But sure, that theory is definitely more believable than selective officiating.
But I guess facts are irrelevant when compared to impression.

The other team that deserves some recognition for bad officiating is MTL, they actually have the worst PP  +/- in the league, and anyone accusing them of being “slow” needs to have their head examined.

What I can’t find, and wish I knew, is the gross team PP TOI vs PK TOI.  I don’t think it’s mere coincidence this stat isn’t published.

GN

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10 Responses to “Some Stats To Highlight The Situation.”

    • Fair enough Oman, but, I’ll leave that to others, I’m trying to do my part by giving people something tangible to point to when they do contact the NHL. And I would encourage people to do so if they feel justified in doing so.
      GN

  1. I too have also watched tons of hockey and am always the first one to tell people not to blame the refs. But this has just been ridiculous. Its great to have real statistics to show that something is clearly going on otherwise people can only come up with general speculation. 22 games is a pretty good sample size to make conclusions about the fairness of officiating. It will be interesting to see how or if the refs adjust and how Clouston reacts if this keeps going on.

  2. All this data summarizes that…

    you have way too much time on your hands; time to go out more my dear friend.

  3. I posted a message for the league officials on their site, and I think any concerned fan with the stats and the experience to back it up should too. The league is concerned primarily with revenues and should thus be sensitive to their fan base, whether they’re from a Canadian market or a struggling US market. The officiating of Ottawa vs. some of these struggling markets has been unconscionable this year, as you have so clearly outlined for us. I believe Montreal and Toronto fans have been noticing it too. Loyal fans are becoming seriously alienated by this league. They should be made aware of it.

  4. Excellent work! No wonder I’m a huge fan of this blog over many others. Thanks so much for all this digging, please keep it up. It’s obvious there’s an issue that needs to be addressed so at least the fans can feel there’s some sort of objectivity.

  5. Thanks Sacul, much appreciated.
    GN

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