Is Fisher The #1 Centre?


The numbers say so.

The wins are adding up, and with the Sens currently sitting at 5th best in the NHL, some trends are beginning to emerge.

First and foremost among them is the fact that, statistically speaking, Fisher is the teams number one centre.

I’m not saying this to dump on Spezza, who has had a good start to his own season, albeit not in the way most of us would have expected, but to point out the fact that Fisher has had a outragiously good start to his season, in all areas of the game.

With a T6C-NAPI(o) number of 8:54 – 1.80 versus Spezza’s T6C-NAPI(o) of 17:06 – 1.06, Fisher is making a strong case that he is in fact contributing almost twice as much positive impact with his top six offensive minutes than is Spezza.

That’s pretty impressive.

So what’s T6C-NAPI(o)?

Basically it’s a measurement of impact on a game, broken down by position, and grouping.

So, T6C means top 6 centreman.  This is determined by ice time, any forward playing more than 15 offensive minutes a game, in a particular position, is considered top 6.

NAPI(o) stands for Norton Average Profound Impact (offense).  This is a formula that uses points and misc. data to determine the impact a player has in a game.  So, for Fisher, he has a profound positive impact on the outcome of a game 1.80 times per game, on average.  This number is then factored against his icetime, and comes up with the time of 8:54.  This is how many minutes Fisher needs to play in order to have a profound positive impact on the outcome of a game.

Yeah, I know, pretty geeky, but I have a thing for stats, and I have yet to find a comprehensive stat I like, so I’m working on my own.  This above number only takes into account offensive icetime, not defensive icetime (P.K), unless there’s a short-handed point, which is worth 1.5 ES points, or 2.0 PP points.  Blah, blah, blah…

For a comparison, here’s the T6C – NAPI(o) for league leading centreman Anzi Kopitar, 7:44 – 2.49.

Here’s Crosby’s T6C-NAPI(o) -7:40 – 2.62

As you can see, Fisher is doing very well for himself, while Spezza is really struggling, in comparison to his top 6 competition.

So who’s the best offensive winger?

Alfredsson – T6W-NAPI(o) =  7:35 – 2.20

Best in the league?

Ovechkin – T6W-NAPI(o) = 6:32 – 3.64

Thoughts?

GN

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4 Responses to “Is Fisher The #1 Centre?”

    • Here’s the formula;
      NAPI(o) factor = (ES pts x 1)+(PP pts / 2)+(SH pts x 2)+(ES+PP Goals while on ice – ES+PP GA while on the ice) + [(Ht+Bs+Tka-Gva) / 100] / GP.
      NAPI(o) time = (ES TOI + PP TOI) / NAPI(o) factor
      The NAPI(o) factor takes into account individual points, on ice goals for and against, hits, take-aways, blocked shots, and give aways.
      The data is seperated by position, and icetime, to rationalize the groupings.
      Basically think of two players, OV and Heatley, they may have similar points, but they don’t have the same impact on games. By using hits, etc, and isolating offensive ice time from defensive ice time, you get a more complete picture of a player, and how dynamic they are, vs just a guy who scores goals. Intuitively we know this, but it’s rarely quantified. This formula tried to show a players complte offensive game.
      GN

  1. I will have to ask my girlfriend (she was an actuary) for help. Its actually a pretty cool system. Who created it?

    • Me, hense NORTON Averaged Profound Impact. It’s nothing special, just takes some playing around with the stats available, and trying to accurately value each stat into a comprehensive factor.
      GN

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