An Honest Look At Sens Post Season Hopes.


Tonights match-up sees the Senators face a division rival also outside the post season and looking in.  But unlike the Senators, the possibility of the Sabres making it still remains within the realm of possibility, if not entirely likely.

So how does this situation really look?  Well, the best way to analyse this is to take a snap shot of the competing teams play of late, and project their final points totals.

Montreal – P% last 10 (.650) / P% Season (.580) / GR 13.      (.65 + .58)/2 = .615(26pts) = 16pts + 80pts = 96 pts.

NYR = 95 pts.

CAR = 92 pts.

FLA = 92 pts.

BUF = 90 pts.

Therefore, this makes the estimated number of points required to make the play-offs 93.

Using the above formula, Ottawa is projected to finish with 82 pts.  Not even close.

So lets be more optimistic, and just use the last 10 games as the projected P%…84 pts, still not good enough.

In order to finish with 93 pts, the Sens will have to play the remainder of the season with a P% of .965.  They need to earn 27 of the remaining 28 available points.  Not gonna happen.

Best case scenario, Sens continue at their current pace, and all those above them in the standing play as well, or better, thus maintaining their current top 10 pick, while still playing vastly improved hockey as compared to that played prior to Cloustons arrival.  Clouston adamantly maintains that this team still has a ways to go in solidifying the “foundation” he and mgmt. wants to see firmly in place.  This means instilling a league leading work ethic, both on and off the ice, which can be relied upon to see the team through the ups and downs of an NHL schedule.

Lets face it, the Sens have collectively pooped the bed this season, from GM to PT guy, and even if a miracle happened, and this team made the post season, they aren’t going to win the Cup.  In fact, making the play-offs would send less of a message to this roster then missing the post season.  I’d rather this team go into next season embarrassed, and fully understanding that winning in the first 40 games is crucial to making the post season.

Here’s to entertaining hockey from here to the end of the season, and a top 10 pick.  Leave the post season dreams for the 09/10 season, where they belong.

Gerald Norton

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