So, You’re Looking Good, How Have You Been?

Another line we’ve all heard.

You know, that cagey, non-committal statement you make the first time you see your ex, the one who cheated on you, but the one you still haven’t quite gotten over, either.

You’ve dreamed of them regretting their decisions.  Dreamed of them pining over you, scheming how to win you back.  ”Oh”, you’ve thought, “how I will make them beg, how I will prove to them they made a huge mistake, oh how I’ll make them pay”.

But then you see them, sitting there with their friends.  You heard the rumours that they wanted you back, but you’d heard that before, too many times before.

Now they’ve seen you, too, and, oh shit, they’re coming to speak to you.

You’re furious with them.

You’ve vowed you’ve gotten over them.

Then why the excitement?

Why the anticipation?

“So, you’re looking good, how have you been?”

WTF?

That’s it?

That was your moment to make them pay, and that was it?

Now what?

Well co-dumped, now what?

Help me figure out how to punish them.  Not kill them, but not let them off without punishment either.

GN

Welcome To Game One

For the Senators, game one of the 2011/12 post-season hits the ice tonight.

With seven games remaining in the regular season, and a scant 2 point advantage over their nearest rivals for play-off status, the Sens have no option but to consider the run to the end of the season an ersatz best of seven series.

Win four, go in the door, lose four, go out the door.

I have no idea what is going on with this team, is it fatigue (Alfie looks a step behind, the kids look anaemic), nerves (it’s one thing to win with no pressure, but now there is expectation), or just a plain old down-cycle?

And, at the end of the game, it doesn’t matter…you’ve either won or lost.

So Sens fans, you wanted the post season atmosphere…enjoy.

GN

Nature Is Not Human Hearted.

Nature does not hurry, yet everything is accomplished.  - Lao Tzu.

It is from this one simple observation that Lao Tzu expresses the right path for the Senators.

The club, and its fans, find themselves enthralled by the flash and hope of trade deadline day, an environment able to seduce the weak-willed into delusions of grandeur, both in terms of their clubs prospects and the ability of certain players.

Rarely, in the cold light of day, do either come to fruition.

Yes we can all point to examples of deadline deals that seemingly put teams and players over the top, leading to the glory of a Stanley Cup victory…but we must always remember only one team won, while many made deals.

I suspect putting the weight of proof on any one action leading up to a Cup win is folly, the true root of success cloaked more in luck, circumstance and player health than any particular asset move.

Winning the cup, after all of the analysis of hind-sight, seemed an obvious outcome for the winning team.  That’s what we humans like to do…find evidence of human ingenuity and greatness at the wheel of destiny.

If only it were that easy.

To my mind, there is only one team to admire and attempt to replicate, the Detroit Red Wings.  They have had success, have been a highly competitive team for nearly a generation, but have always remained focused on doing the hard things while they’re still easy, like developing players through the draft, not the trade deadline or UFA market.

I believe Ottawa would be making a huge mistake attempting to make a splash on deadline day.  Now is the time to see the advantage of doing things right, bolstering ones commitment to the plan.

Yeah, my view may be “boring”…but when creating frivolous excitement becomes more important than winning, you’ve probably just made a huge mistake.

GN

Hard To Say Good-bye.

If I were to bring up this line combo;

Daugavins – Smith – Condra

What would be your reaction?

Most (I presume) would laud its former glory, and wonder why it hasn’t been seen more of in recent days, particularly when the Sens seemed to be lacking ooomph during this four game skid.

Well, there are two reasons.

Jessie Winchester and Chris Neil.

In the formers case, he has been injured, and his loss from the line-up has resulted in a bit of a mash-up 4th line, composed of Daugavins, Konopka and Butler.  Despite its best efforts this line has been in-effective, being neither beast nor fowl.

As for Neil, here’s a guy, if he played on a more talented roster, would be an impact 3rd liner, but on the Sens lacks the complimentary talent to really shine.  Currently playing with Smith and Condra, who has not been all that he can be.

So what will happen once Winnie comes back?

The easy answer is Butler comes out, but that may not be where it ends, and a lot will depend on how this team performs between now and the deadline as to what will happen long-term for this roster.

The fact is Chris Neil represents a very marketable commodity to a team looking to make a deep post season run.  He has a tonne of experience, is a very versatile player (albeit not a scorer in the true sense of the word), reliable on both sides of the puck, and brings a tremendous amount of grit, without going over the edge.

Is he available…not that I’ve heard, but I would suspect that, should the Sens not be in the thick of the battle come Feb. 27th, he will be.

At 32 years of age, and a 2M cap hit through next season…now might be the time to capitalize on the teams veterans, with an eye to the future.

What do you think, should the Senators find themselves outside of the post season come deadline day, would you make Neil available, or is he a key member of this teams rebuild plans?

GN

Off Topic – SOPA Opera.

This post has nothing to do with blogging about hockey…or does it?

As a blogger, who functions in a nefarious region of cyber-space, spouting cyber rumours and opinions, while comfortably ensconced within a teflon suit of anonymity, who am I to question copyright law…right?

Wrong.

I question it not because it profits me by attempting to curtail or strengthen its status (hey, I don’t charge you to read my meandering thoughts), from a bloggers perspective, as I have no dog in this fight.

But as a rabid user of the internet, and a staunch supporter of fact based thinking, the mere thought of stifling access to quality information is frightening.

Without getting political, look no further than the Northern Gateway Pipeline issue currently making the rounds in Canadian media.  I’m neither for nor against it, I’m still trying to determine for myself which side I fall on.  But that’s the point, unlike in times past (no so very long ago), I can easily, through the power of the internet, discover the facts surrounding this issue.  I do not need to rely upon the generic and entirely fact exclusive conclusions of either side, government/industry, or the environmentalists.

Both sides in this issue are quick to provide grand conclusions, supposedly based upon facts…but as has always been the case, never actually show their work, and how they came to these conclusions, the very ones they want us to accept as valid and reliable.

To do anything to stifle the ability of citizens to access, analyse and draw conclusions, from fact, is to tarnish one of the greatest abilities of mankind, to reason.

So, like with the pipeline, I’m not sure what the specific solution/answer is regarding intellectual property rights, but I do know anything that attempts to prevent people from examining the facts around an issue, is often good for the few, but bad for the many.

We know that ideas are organic, and the greatest achievements of all time have been the result of meta thinking, not insular thought…so is not the sharing of ideas the most effective means of creating more, and better ideas?

Yes people need to be paid for their efforts, but not everything is about money alone, because if it were, well, how sad would that be?

GN

From Near Glory To Bloody Gory. A Cautionary Story?

When last season came to an end, we all knew the team was well and committed to the rebuilding process.  We, as a fan base, had accepted the trading of some long time players (Fisher and Kelly) and though not enjoying post season play, with visions of the Stanley Cup running through our collective minds, we did seriously anticipate the up-coming draft, and the exercising of the teams many picks.

We knew it would be a long road ahead, but we had some other teams to look to for encouragement; Chicago, Edmonton and the LA Kings.

Chicago is the epitome of making a rebuild pay quick dividends, Edmonton has been a great team to watch for years, and will soon come to the front of the pack once their prospects come to fruition.  LA looked ready to make the leap, were just a player away from taking that next big step, after years of development patience, from both the fans and management.

Then they did it, Schenn, a supposed blue-chip prospect traded for Richards, a supposed blue-chip post-season performer.  Before the season began we all looked enviously at LA, a team on the verge of breaking out…then, nothing.  Sure, there was the hold-out of Doughty, which no doubt provided both distraction and an on ice impact (assuming his slow production is a result of missing camp), but nobody expected the team to be worse than before the trade to get over the top.

This is the scary side of the re-build, what if it doesn’t work?  Yeah, the Chicago story is awesome…but the NYI story is not.

Only time will tell.

GN

Sign of The Times

Erik Karlsson is struggling.

Yes, he’s continuing to earn points, but he is forcing the play more since a certain date, and seems a bit…pressured.

Why?

Well, I can think of at least 20 million reasons why.

Twenty million USD’s, over 5 years, to be exact.  That is what his former team-mate, Victor Hedman, signed for just 10 days ago.

I don’t know about you but, when I was 21, visions of earning four to five million dollars a year would probably have me a bit excited, and feeling pressured to make it happen.  This is generational wealth, for a 21 year old kid…of course it has him twitchy.

But, the BIG question is, for how much?  Hedman, a 2nd over-all, earned 20 over 5, coming out of EL.  I would suggest he represents the fair minimum.

Jack Jonhson, of the LAK’s, represents the fair top, at 30.5M over 7 years.

Now, this is always a bit of an apples and oranges, as, to date, Karlsson has been the better offensive player between he and Hedman, with Hedman being a much bigger body, while Johnson was similar offensively, last season, but has more experience and a more physical presence on the ice.  To me, this puts Karlsson closer to Hedman, than Johnson.

I’d put Karlsson in at 25M over 6 years, for an average cap hit of 4.167M/yr.

We all know he is going to be re-signed here in Ottawa, so just get it done, let the kid have his swoon period, and then get back to focusing on the game…the longer the team waits, the longer it will impact his play.

GN

New Lines, Old Problems.

Well, MacLean took my advice, no doubt after having read my blog…it’s a burden folks, to have such influence.

Unfortunately, he didn’t read the fine print, and stopped at my suggestion to break up the top two lines.  I was left a little cold at his re-shuffle, and it was obvious I was right when he started to reassemble the lines with the third reunited, and the new, “old”, first line put back together.

So, in case you’ve read this far down Paul, I’ll re-iterate the right top 6 line combinations for you;

9-19-11

14-71-16/21.

Speaking of 16/21, it’s time for 21.  now, I understand (as the 6thSens adroitly pointed out) I’m not in the room, and fully trust The Stashes take, but that being said, here’s mine;  I’m worried Paul likes Butler more than Nikki, for whatever reason, and it is influencing his line-up choices.  Of the two, from a purely skill set point of view, Filatov is the better player.  Bobby may have a better attitude (I’m just guessing here), but to date, he’s been a mess, wherever he skates, 4th, 2nd, or 1st line.

So, at the risk of sounding like a broken record, let’s get Filly back into the game, on the second line, and see if he, of the two, can get something going.  Because right now neither have proven themselves worthy of ice time, but to date Butts has had the most opportunity to prove his (un) worthiness.

GN

ps – Obviously I’ve been very happy with the coaching thus far, and know my .02 is worth, well, about that…maybe.

pps – the best line-up move on the night was made by the refs, when they gave ZK a 10 minute misconduct, getting him off the ice before he could take another absurdly useless instigating penalty.  Zenon, what the hell were you thinking man…that was absolutely stupid timing.

From B-Sens Blogger

A great read from B-Sens reporter JLindsay.

http://www.pressconnects.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=PluckPersona&U=551340dd39644ae695cca9fe0180e879&plckController=PersonaBlog&plckScript=personaScript&plckElementId=personaDest&plckPersonaPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog:551340dd39644ae695cca9fe0180e879Post:00950337-d85f-43dd-a0b5-b48ab14ac9eb&sid=sitelife.pressconnects.com

GN

A Paint by Numbers Picasso…Is NOT a Picasso.

In the final pre-season, we caught a glimpse of the future.

Plucky upstart roster squeaks win thanks to stellar goaltending.  You could have turned off the lights in the Gardens, and the combined gleaming grins of Sens management would have kept the building well-lit.  The win was a paint by numbers Picasso, nothing beautiful, but as close as possible to the real thing as could be expected from a squad of mostly rookies.

That game was what many fans hope will become the norm for this squad, not the exception.  A series of Craig vs. Goliath victories, in which  a sling shot offense defeats that of a skillfully wielded sword.

But is this too much to hope for?

If this script leads one to imagine a regular season ending  in post season, then frankly, yes.

But this is not a bad thing.

Let’s not forget the adage ‘Pride Comes Before A Fall’.  If this team should experience un-expected success, it may well result in more harm (big picture) than good.  It may cost this team a much-needed high pick.  It may cost this team much-needed tempered expectation from within the ranks of its fans.  Worst of all, it may cause management to over-estimate the ability of the roster, and deviate from “The Plan”, a plan, I would argue, any success should reinforce, not alter.

This season must be viewed as being one giant pre-season.  Wins and losses do not matter, when compared to development of individual skills, in the context of the teams over-all system.  This season is about teaching a new system, developing NHL ready skills (both on and off ice) and reaping the rewards of any resultant losses in the form of a top draft pick.

THAT is the plan.

Let us not be fooled into buying a paint by numbers Picasso as the real thing.

GN

p.s.  Damn, that was a great win!